Pierre Le Denmat

Manipulating Prior Beliefs Causally Induces Under- and Overconfidence

分享嘉宾： Pierre Le Denmat
单位： KU Leuven

报告简介

Humans differ vastly in the confidence they assign to decisions. Although such under- and overconfidence relate to fundamental life outcomes, a computational account specifying the underlying mechanisms is currently lacking. We propose that prior beliefs in the ability to perform a task explain confidence differences across participants and tasks, despite similar performance. In two experiments, we show that manipulating prior beliefs about performance during training causally influences confidence in healthy adults. This is true when prior beliefs are induced via manipulated comparative feedback and via manipulated training-phase difficulty. Results were accounted for within an accumulation-to-bound model, explicitly modeling prior beliefs based on earlier task exposure. Decision confidence is quantified as the probability of being correct conditional on prior beliefs, causing under- or overconfidence.

报告时间

北京时间 [GMT+8] 2024年5月20日 (周一) 20:00~21:00

会议信息： ZOOM 会议号：827 9274 9402

报告语言： 英文

主持人： 胡啸

参考文献

Van Marcke, H., Denmat, P. L., Verguts, T., & Desender, K. (2024). Manipulating Prior Beliefs Causally Induces Under- and Overconfidence. Psychological Science, 35(4), 358-375. https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976241231572

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