The Autocorrelated Bayesian Sampler: A Rational Process for Decision Making

分享嘉宾： 祝建桥
单位： 普林斯顿大学计算机科学系

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报告简介

Normative models of decision-making that optimally transform noisy (sensory) information into categorical decisions qualitatively mismatch human behavior. Indeed, leading computational models have only achieved high empirical corroboration by adding task-specific assumptions that deviate from normative principles. In response, we offer a Bayesian approach that implicitly produces a posterior distribution of possible answers (hypotheses) in response to sensory information. But we assume that the brain has no direct access to this posterior, but can only sample hypotheses according to their posterior probabilities. Accordingly, we argue that the primary problem of normative concern in decision-making is integrating stochastic hypotheses, rather than stochastic sensory information, to make categorical decisions. This implies that human response variability arises mainly from posterior sampling rather than sensory noise. Because human hypothesis generation is serially correlated, hypothesis samples will be autocorrelated. Guided by this new problem formulation, we develop a new process, the Autocorrelated Bayesian Sampler (ABS), which grounds autocorrelated hypothesis generation in a sophisticated sampling algorithm. The ABS provides a single mechanism that qualitatively explains many empirical effects of probability judgments, estimates, confidence intervals, choice, confidence judgments, response times, and their relationships.

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报告时间

北京时间 [GMT+8] 2023年11月2日 (周四) 21:00~22:30

会议信息： ZOOM 会议号：926 4464 3218

报告语言： 中文

主持人： 胡啸

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参考文献

Zhu, J.-Q., Sundh, J., Spicer, J., Chater, N., & Sanborn, A. N. (2023). The Autocorrelated Bayesian Sampler: A Rational Process for Probability Judgments, Estimates, Confidence Intervals, Choices, Confidence Judgments, and Response Times. Psychological Review. https://dx.doi.org/10.1037/rev0000427

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